Manufacturing Revenue Expected To Fall Flat In 2025 Despite Flashy Expansions
Big U.S. manufacturing investment announcements have been coming in fast and furious, but that exuberance is not being reflected in first-quarter results or expectations for the remainder of the year.
Tariffs have hit the bottom lines of manufacturing giants like Ford Motor Co., John Deere and DuPont in the first earnings period since they were announced. And executives are not feeling hopeful about the months ahead, with revenue expectations struggling to lift, weighed down by slowing demand, rising costs and uncertainty in the market.
Ford is among a long list of manufacturers that blamed tariffs for disappointing first-quarter results. The carmaker said it expected to take a $1.5B loss in net profits due to the Trump administration trade policy, according to The Detroit Free Press. Caterpillar and others have also pointed to tariffs for disappointing results.
A new economic outlook report and survey from the Institute for Supply Management suggests sluggish growth could continue. Revenue is now projected to grow just 0.1% through year’s end, down sharply from the 4.2% forecast in December, according to the report. The decline is heavily influenced by tariffs planting seeds of uncertainty and spiking prices.
“We’ve gone into another liquidity year, rather than a productivity year, all driven by tariffs,” Timothy Fiore, former chair of the ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee, told Manufacturing Dive.
Rebound growth is expected to hit in 2026, per the report, which states that “trade issues, continued inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty are all headwinds for the rest of the year.”
The 4.1% drop in projected revenue marks a decline from 2024’s 0.8% growth.
President Donald Trump implemented widespread tariffs at the beginning of April. Though some were rolled back in the weeks that followed, the U.S. is maintaining a minimum 10% tariff for more than 150 countries.
That has led to projections that raw material prices will rise 7.5%, according to the ISM report. About 21% of manufacturing executives say they plan to cut capital spending by more than 25%, the report states.
Signs pointing to a relatively flat year stand in sharp contrast to the broader push to expand manufacturing on American soil and a growing list of splashy investment announcements.
Apple announced in February that it was committed to spending more than $500B on expanding manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. over the next four years and has immediate plans to build a 250K SF factory in Houston, CBS News reported. Houston could also be the site of a new $5.9B biomanufacturing site from Eli Lilly and Co., one of several large investments contemplated for the sector during Trump's tenure.
Johnson & Johnson said in March it would increase its U.S. investment to more than $55B over four years with four planned new manufacturing facilities.
The disconnect reflects an ongoing dynamic in the manufacturing sphere: Even as many are investing heavily into onshoring and cheering for policy success, others are warning haphazard implementation of trade policy is delaying or scuttling the plans of companies eager to expand U.S. operations.
